Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

1

Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.

"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."

Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.

Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.

"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."

With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."

The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.

Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."

The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.

Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Investors Advised Against Overvalued Markets Amid Economic Uncertainty 18 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori In a market swayed by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, investors are encouraged to remain cautious of inflated valuations. The mid-year outlook from Schroders warns against ignoring these issues, despite the market's surprising resilience to economic pressures. - read more

ASIC Penalises Two Licensees for Unregistered Financial Advice 17 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has taken enforcement action against two financial planning licensees for permitting unregistered advisers to provide personal financial advice. This regulatory action involved Sky Money Pty Ltd and Smart Financial Capital Pty Ltd, who were each required to pay infringement notice penalties amounting to $31,300 in early July 2025. - read more

Unemployment Rate Rises as Australian Labour Market Cools 17 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori Australia's strong labour market showed signs of cooling in June, with the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealing an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent in May. This slowdown in employment growth, with only a modest increase of 2000 jobs, adds to the pressure on the Reserve Bank to consider future interest rate cuts. The Reserve Bank had previously held the official cash rate steady at 3. - read more

Australia's Unsustainable Financial Outlook Raises Concerns 16 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori Recent admissions from the Treasury reveal Australia's precarious financial situation, with significant implications for the nation’s economic stability. A report from credit ratings firm S&P last month highlighted that the combined budget deficits of Australia’s state and federal governments total $52 billion. Furthermore, the country's net debt has already surpassed 60% of GDP, showcasing a challenging fiscal scenario. - read more

RBA Proposes Ban on Card Payment Surcharges 15 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has proposed eliminating surcharges on debit and credit card transactions, a move that impacts all major card providers such as Mastercard, Visa, and eftpos. As revealed in a newly released consultation paper, the RBA cites the $1.2 billion annual cost to consumers, highlighting inefficiencies and advocating for a unified approach to card payments. - read more

Future2 Foundation Seeks Nominations for Financial Wellbeing Grants 15 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Future2 Foundation has opened nominations for its annual Make the Difference Grants, providing financial support to initiatives that enhance financial wellbeing across Australia. Financial services professionals have until August 21 to nominate local projects aimed at improving financial literacy, assisting those in poverty, supporting disadvantaged women, and benefiting regional and remote communities. - read more

Increasing Number of Qualified Financial Advisers Opt Out of Practice 11 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori Recent analysis from WealthData indicates a growing trend among financial advisers in Australia, where a significant portion of those who have successfully passed the financial adviser exam are opting not to practice. As of now, 5,096 individuals, representing 33.31% of active advisers, have chosen not to proceed into practice after passing the exam—up from 28.36% a year prior. - read more