Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.

"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."

Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.

Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.

"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."

With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."

The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.

Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."

The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.

Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

LMG's Asset Finance Exchange Hits $80 Million Milestone in First Year

09 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a remarkable demonstration of Australia's expanding asset finance sector, Loan Market Group's Asset Finance Exchange (AFX) has reported settlements totaling approximately $80 million within its first year of operation. This achievement underscores the platform's effectiveness in connecting mortgage brokers with asset finance specialists, thereby facilitating substantial business growth. - read more

Valiant Finance Facilitates Over $2.5 Billion in Loans to Australian SMEs

09 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Valiant Finance, an Australian business finance marketplace established in 2015, has achieved a significant milestone by facilitating over $2.5 billion in loans to more than 20,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the country. This accomplishment underscores the growing reliance on digital platforms for business financing solutions. - read more

ANZ Receives $2 Billion Government Guarantee to Sustain Pacific Operations

09 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a strategic initiative to bolster its presence in the Pacific region, ANZ has secured a A$2 billion loan guarantee from the Australian government. This 10-year agreement aims to ensure the bank's continued operation of its Pacific branch network, serving as a countermeasure to growing regional influences. - read more

So Money Broadens Services to Support Australian SMEs

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In response to the growing demand for small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) financing in Australia, non-bank lender So Money has expanded its services to include tailored lending solutions for self-employed borrowers and SMEs. This strategic move aims to simplify the income verification process and strengthen partnerships with brokers, thereby enhancing access to business financing. - read more

ASIC Advocates for Enhanced Standards in Australia's Private Lending Sector

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has issued a call for the private lending sector to elevate its standards to align more closely with traditional banking practices. This initiative follows an extensive review by the regulator, which uncovered inconsistencies in reporting, downplayed risks, and opaque fee structures within the rapidly growing private credit market. - read more

Westpac Restructures to Strengthen Business Lending Focus

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Westpac Banking Corporation has announced a significant restructuring initiative aimed at bolstering its presence in the business lending market. The bank plans to replace a substantial number of in-branch tellers with business bankers, a move designed to enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and capitalise on the growing demand for business financing. - read more

ASX Adjusts Dividend Policy Following ASIC's $150 Million Capital Charge

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has announced a reduction in its dividend payout ratio to 75-85% of underlying net profit after tax. This decision follows the Australian Securities and Investments Commission's (ASIC) imposition of an additional A$150 million capital charge on the exchange operator. The regulatory action stems from an inquiry into ASX's operational shortcomings, including a failed software upgrade and recurring trade-processing issues. - read more

Click for more Finance News