Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.

"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."

Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.

Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.

"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."

With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."

The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.

Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."

The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.

Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Payment Delays Put Working Capital Back on the SME Agenda

12 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Late invoice payments are again emerging as a practical funding issue for Australian small and medium-sized businesses, with fresh industry commentary pointing to continued pressure across trade payments, cash reserves and day-to-day operating liquidity. For business owners, the message is clear: revenue on paper is not the same as cash in the bank. - read more

Rising Business Failure Risk Puts Cash Flow Back in the Lending Spotlight

04 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Fresh business risk signals are reinforcing a clear message for Australian SMEs: access to credit is still available, but lenders are likely to keep asking harder questions about cash flow, repayment capacity and the resilience of each borrower’s operating model. The latest commentary around business failures, trade payment pressure and sector-specific insolvency risk points to a market where credit decisions are becoming increasingly evidence-led. - read more

Business Borrowing Momentum Is Becoming More Selective

28 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's business lending market appears to be entering a more selective phase, with the latest banking signals pointing to a widening gap between larger companies still seeking capital and smaller firms taking a more cautious approach. While credit is not disappearing, lenders are increasingly focused on serviceability, cash flow consistency and the purpose behind each new facility. - read more

Small Firms Tap the Brakes on Borrowing in June

21 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small businesses appear to be moving into a more defensive phase, with new Equifax data for June 2026 pointing to a sharp divide between larger companies still borrowing for expansion and SMEs conserving cash. The latest Business Market Pulse suggests overall business loan demand is still growing, but at a slower pace than the stronger credit activity recorded late last year. - read more

Small Business Tax Debt Crackdown Sharpens Cash Flow Focus

07 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small businesses may soon face a more disciplined tax debt collection environment, after the Australian National Audit Office found the ATO needs clearer targets for reducing collectable small business debt. The issue is substantial: small business collectable tax debt stood at $35.9 billion in 2024-25, representing about two-thirds of total collectable tax debt. - read more

Record Commercial Card Debt Points to Fresh SME Cashflow Pressure

30 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small businesses are showing another sign of financial strain, with commercial credit card debt reaching a record level at the end of June. New analysis from Credit 2024 and Primara Research indicates total commercial card debt has climbed to about $2.26 billion, with almost a quarter of that sitting in high-interest balances rather than being cleared quickly. - read more

RBA Rate Pause Gives Businesses Time to Reassess Debt

23 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on 16 June 2026 to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% marks the first pause after three consecutive increases this year. For Australian business owners, the hold is not exactly relief, but it does create a short window to review debt settings before the next policy move. - read more

Click for more Finance News