Business Loans Australia :: News
SHARE

Share this news item!

Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades?w=400
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.

Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.

"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."

Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.

Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.

"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."

With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."

The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.

Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."

The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.

Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Increasing Number of Qualified Financial Advisers Opt Out of Practice Increasing Number of Qualified Financial Advisers Opt Out of Practice
11 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent analysis from WealthData indicates a growing trend among financial advisers in Australia, where a significant portion of those who have successfully passed the financial adviser exam are opting not to practice. As of now, 5,096 individuals, representing 33.31% of active advisers, have chosen not to proceed into practice after passing the exam—up from 28.36% a year prior. - read more
Melbourne's Housing Market: A Prime Opportunity For Buyers Melbourne's Housing Market: A Prime Opportunity For Buyers
11 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently surprised many by maintaining the interest rate at 3.85%, against expectations of a cut. This decision is seen as a measure to continue moderating inflation, but it simultaneously delays potential spikes in the housing market, providing a favorable window for prospective homebuyers. In particular, Melbourne's current market presents significant value, offering a promising opportunity for those looking to enter the property market. - read more
Improving EOFY Planning: The Call for ATO Portal Access for Advisers Improving EOFY Planning: The Call for ATO Portal Access for Advisers
09 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

In a recent discussion, James O'Reilly, Director and Financial Planner at Northeast Wealth, underscored the benefits that could come from granting financial advisers access to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) portal. Speaking on The ifa Show, O'Reilly proposed that this access would significantly simplify the services financial advisers provide to clients, particularly at tax time and the end of the financial year (EOFY). - read more
RBA Holds Rates Steady, Shocking Markets and Shifting Economic Expectations RBA Holds Rates Steady, Shocking Markets and Shifting Economic Expectations
09 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to keep the official cash rate steady at 3.85%, taking many by surprise after expectations of a 25-basis-point cut had built up in financial circles. This unexpected move comes amid recent data indicating easing inflation and weaker than anticipated economic growth, conflicting with prior predictions of a cut. - read more
RBA to Continue Interest Rate Cuts Amid High Unemployment RBA to Continue Interest Rate Cuts Amid High Unemployment
08 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its trajectory of incremental interest rate reductions, according to insights from leading financial analysts at ANZ. Recent data from the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series revealed a rise from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June, suggesting a potential rebound in job advertisements after previous declines. Despite a stable unemployment rate and hours-based underutilisation rate since mid-2024, the Australian labour market remains strained. - read more
RBA Poised for Cash Rate Cut Amid Inflationary Trends RBA Poised for Cash Rate Cut Amid Inflationary Trends
07 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its forthcoming monetary policy announcement, economic analysts anticipate a further reduction in the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This prediction, supported by Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 88% of participating experts foresee a cut that would lower the interest rate to 3.6%, aligning the decision with the recent decline in both headline and core inflation to the central bank's target range of two to three percent. - read more
Uncovering the Impact of Unsolicited Solar Sales on Consumers Uncovering the Impact of Unsolicited Solar Sales on Consumers
04 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori

In a concerning revelation, Australian retiree Christine Hirchfield shares her ordeal with an unsolicited solar installation that turned into a financial nightmare. Despite her initial enthusiasm for cheaper energy bills and a greener home, the project remains incomplete more than a year later. Consumer groups are now advocating for a nationwide prohibition on deceptive sales practices that target vulnerable consumers like Ms Hirchfield. - read more


Business Loans Articles

Mezzanine Finance: A Strategic Tool for Business Growth through Acquisition Mezzanine Finance: A Strategic Tool for Business Growth through Acquisition
Mezzanine finance represents a sophisticated instrument within the realm of corporate finance, often utilized as a strategic tool when more traditional forms of capital are not ideally suited or are insufficient for a firm's needs. Inherently, it serves as a hybrid between debt and equity financing, tailored to support growth initiatives such as business acquisitions. - read more
The Role of Refinancing in Sustaining Business Growth The Role of Refinancing in Sustaining Business Growth
Loan refinancing is a financial strategy where existing debts are replaced with new ones, usually with different terms and conditions. While it might seem like just swapping one loan for another, the nuances can be game-changers for businesses. Refinancing often provides a chance to improve borrowing conditions, such as reducing interest rates, altering loan durations, or switching to a more favourable lender. - read more
From Setbacks to Success: Overcoming Credit Challenges and Fueling Business Growth From Setbacks to Success: Overcoming Credit Challenges and Fueling Business Growth
In the dynamic world of business, navigating credit challenges is a reality for many Australian business owners. These challenges can stem from various sources, including unpaid customer invoices, unexpected expenses, or the complexities of managing cash flow. Such hurdles often come at inopportune moments, leading to recurring stress for entrepreneurs trying to maintain a stable financial standing. - read more
Understanding Loan Terms and Conditions: A Guide for New Business Owners Understanding Loan Terms and Conditions: A Guide for New Business Owners
Starting a business often requires a substantial amount of capital, which many new business owners may not have readily available. Business loans can provide the necessary funding to help get your startup off the ground, from purchasing equipment to hiring staff and everything in between. - read more
Mastering Cash Flow: Essential Tips for Expanding Your Business's Working Capital Mastering Cash Flow: Essential Tips for Expanding Your Business's Working Capital
Cash flow is the lifeblood of any business, signifying the money that flows in and out of your operations. It's essential for covering daily expenses, paying employees, and capitalizing on growth opportunities. Maintaining a healthy cash flow ensures that a business can meet its obligations and invest in its future. - read more
The Ultimate Checklist for Applying for a Business Loan in Australia The Ultimate Checklist for Applying for a Business Loan in Australia
Welcome to the world of boating! Whether you've just bought your first boat or are considering making a purchase, it's essential to understand the importance of regular maintenance. Proper upkeep not only extends the life of your boat but also ensures safety while out on the water. - read more
Business Loans in Australia: Tips for Finding the Perfect Fit Business Loans in Australia: Tips for Finding the Perfect Fit
Funding is crucial for startups and small businesses looking to grow and succeed. In Australia, there are multiple financing options available, each catering to different business needs. These options range from traditional bank loans to more flexible lines of credit, helping entrepreneurs find the best fit for their specific requirements. - read more
Financing Options to Boost Your Business Liquidity Financing Options to Boost Your Business Liquidity
Liquidity is a vital aspect of any successful business, representing the ability to meet short-term obligations and to manage cash flow effectively. High liquidity indicates that a company can swiftly convert assets into cash to cover its liabilities. This financial agility enables businesses to navigate unpredictability, seize opportunities, and maintain operational stability. - read more
Mezzanine Finance: A Strategic Tool for Business Growth through Acquisition Mezzanine Finance: A Strategic Tool for Business Growth through Acquisition
Mezzanine finance represents a sophisticated instrument within the realm of corporate finance, often utilized as a strategic tool when more traditional forms of capital are not ideally suited or are insufficient for a firm's needs. Inherently, it serves as a hybrid between debt and equity financing, tailored to support growth initiatives such as business acquisitions. - read more
Alternative Funding Options for Your Australian Business Alternative Funding Options for Your Australian Business
When it comes to starting or expanding a business in Australia, securing funding is often a top priority. However, traditional funding options, such as bank loans or government grants, can be difficult to obtain for small businesses. - read more
Unlocking Cash Flow: How Equipment Leasing Can Benefit Your Australian Business Unlocking Cash Flow: How Equipment Leasing Can Benefit Your Australian Business
In the ever-evolving landscape of Australian business, equipment leasing has emerged as a pivotal financial tool for companies across the spectrum. Whether you're a small start-up or a well-established corporation, the agility to pivot and adapt to market changes is critical. This introduction seeks to shed light on the concept of equipment leasing and its significance in bolstering the operational efficiency of Australian businesses. - read more
Business Loans in Australia: Tips for Finding the Perfect Fit Business Loans in Australia: Tips for Finding the Perfect Fit
Funding is crucial for startups and small businesses looking to grow and succeed. In Australia, there are multiple financing options available, each catering to different business needs. These options range from traditional bank loans to more flexible lines of credit, helping entrepreneurs find the best fit for their specific requirements. - read more
Mastering Cash Flow: Essential Tips for Expanding Your Business's Working Capital Mastering Cash Flow: Essential Tips for Expanding Your Business's Working Capital
Cash flow is the lifeblood of any business, signifying the money that flows in and out of your operations. It's essential for covering daily expenses, paying employees, and capitalizing on growth opportunities. Maintaining a healthy cash flow ensures that a business can meet its obligations and invest in its future. - read more
From Setbacks to Success: Overcoming Credit Challenges and Fueling Business Growth From Setbacks to Success: Overcoming Credit Challenges and Fueling Business Growth
In the dynamic world of business, navigating credit challenges is a reality for many Australian business owners. These challenges can stem from various sources, including unpaid customer invoices, unexpected expenses, or the complexities of managing cash flow. Such hurdles often come at inopportune moments, leading to recurring stress for entrepreneurs trying to maintain a stable financial standing. - read more


Need Help Finding a Loan?
Loan Amount:
Postcode:
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without obligation.
We respect your privacy.

Knowledgebase
Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI):
A personal finance measure that compares an individual's monthly debt payment to their monthly gross income.