RBA's Looming Decision: A Double-Edged Sword for Homeowners?

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

A majority of economic pundits propose that the RBA’s prolonged battle against inflation has reached its zenith, with inflation indicators finally settling into a comfortable two to three per cent bracket. This belief inclines most experts towards anticipating a rate reduction. However, insights from a report on finder.com.au signal that 10 experts out of a 37-member panel might expect otherwise.

"The pressure mounts for the RBA to lower rates as headline inflation has relaxed into the desired range," stated Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at finder.com.au. Yet, he advises caution by noting that a conclusion is not definitive.

Conversely, some critics express restraint amid residual concerns over persistent inflation drivers and economic stability. The original article from news.com.au highlights that not all panel members endorse immediate rate adjustments.

Noel Whittaker, from the Queensland University of Technology, indicates patience might be prudent under current conditions, emphasizing, “Labour market constraints and high construction sector inflation continue to exert upward price pressures.”

Richard Holden of UNSW Business School raises another pertinent concern: core inflation metrics, after subsidies, linger above the two to three per cent target, pegged at 3.3 per cent. His colleague, Dr. Evgenia Dechter, concurs, suggesting the RBA's decision could err on the side of caution regarding the stability of core inflationary figures.

Sydney University’s Stella Huangfu also signals a pause, stating that while inflation nears target levels, the buoyant job market signals resilience in the economy which could dissuade immediate rate adjustments.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, Sean Langcake from Oxford Economics Australia identifies potential lingering pressures that could arise from unassessed elements of inflation once subsidies dissipate. He remarks that services inflation, buoyed by a tight labour market, continues to be a concern.

Furthermore, a depreciating Australian dollar may compound issues, increasing import costs and fuelling inflation. According to Peter Boehm, a managing director at Pathfinder Consulting, reducing rates might, in this context, amplify inflationary pressures rather than alleviate them.

External global factors also compound these domestic dynamics. The unpredictability in international trade climates, notably with geopolitical movements such as tariff policies from the US, add to the uncertainty clouding the RBA's path forward.

The RBA's forthcoming move will be its first potential readjustment since it initiated rate hikes four years ago. A cut, if it occurs, would indeed mark a pivotal shift from the 13 upward adjustments that have propelled the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

This anticipated cut, should it materialise, promises tangible benefits for mortgage holders. Homeowners with an average mortgage may see a reduction in monthly payments, with notable savings in interest expenses.

With an election on the horizon, political stakeholders remain particularly vested in the RBA's decision. Treasurer Jim Chalmers maintains that even amid economic uncertainty, the government’s priority remains addressing cost-of-living challenges, underlining, "Our focus on alleviating financial burdens for Australians remains unwavering, irrespective of the RBA’s decision."

Published:Tuesday, 18th Feb 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.60%, Forecasts Extended Stability

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its decision to maintain the official cash rate at 3.60% during its December meeting, signaling a potential extended period of stability through 2026. This move reflects the central bank's response to higher-than-expected inflation and a robust economic environment. - read more

October Sees Significant Rise in Australian Household Spending

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In October 2025, Australian household spending experienced a notable increase of 1.3%, reaching A$78.4 billion. This marks the most substantial monthly rise in nearly two years, driven primarily by year-end sales events and heightened consumer confidence. - read more

Australia's Economy Achieves 2.1% Annual Growth in Q3 2025

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, recording a 2.1% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025. This marks the fastest annual expansion in two years, driven by robust business investments and consumer spending. - read more

APRA's New Cap on High DTI Home Loans: What It Means for Borrowers

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap restricting banks from issuing more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios of six times or higher. This measure applies to both owner-occupier and investor loans, excluding new housing developments. - read more

Global Dynamics and Their Impact on Australia's Financial Landscape

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a recent address in Sydney, Penelope Smith, head of the international department at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), shed light on the significant influence of global factors on Australia's financial conditions. She pointed out that indicators such as low equity risk premia and credit spreads suggest that financial conditions may be more accommodative than they appear at first glance. - read more

Westpac's Financial Performance: Navigating Challenges in a Competitive Mortgage Market

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Westpac Banking Corporation has reported a slight decrease in its annual profit, recording A$6.99 billion for the year ending September 30, 2025, down from A$7.11 billion the previous year. Despite this decline, the result surpassed analysts' expectations of A$6.83 billion. - read more

NAB Lowers Business Loan Interest Rates by 0.25%

22 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

National Australia Bank (NAB), Australia's largest business bank, has announced a 0.25% per annum reduction in interest rates for eligible business lending products. This decision follows the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent 0.25% cut to the cash rate. - read more

Click for more Finance News