RBA On The Brink: Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up

2

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The survey, conducted as part of the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 73% of economists and market specialists foresee a 25-basis point rate cut at next week's meeting. This adjustment could lower the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease in five years, according to findings initially reported by Patrick Buncsi at Financial Services Online.

While most forecast the cut for February, a subset of experts opts for alternative timelines. Five survey participants predict an April reduction, whereas two others anticipate a rate cut happening by May. Divergent opinions highlight the complexity of the economic landscape and the challenges faced by policymakers.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, is among those expecting the RBA to act decisively. "Underlying inflation is falling faster than the RBA expected and has been running around target over the last six months, economic activity is a bit weaker than expected and Trump’s trade war poses more risks to Australian growth than inflation," Oliver remarked, pointing to international tensions adding weight to the decision.

The prospect of a rate cut is driven not only by global factors but also by domestic concerns, including election year dynamics and noteworthy dips in monthly inflation figures. Critics argue that the combination of weak growth and international trade volatility necessitates a proactive approach from the RBA.

Despite the apparent urgency, some economists urge caution. QUT Adjunct Professor Noel Whittaker is sceptical of a prompt cut, citing persistent inflation within the building sector, severe labour shortages, and robust employment figures. "The problem is inflation in the building industry remains massive, labour shortages are severe, and the job market is still strong - keeping inflationary pressure on the economy," Whittaker notes.

Other analysts mirror Whittaker's concerns, pointing towards stubborn core inflation rates and price pressures within specific sectors. Sean Langcake of Oxford Economics Australia warns that the February decision is closely contested. He elaborates, "The February decision will be a very close run. Inflation in Q4 was a little weaker than the RBA expected."

Langcake expressed the ongoing deliberation, cautioning that despite weaker inflation indicators, "Services inflation is still looking very strong - a byproduct of the labour market still operating beyond its capacity." He suggests the RBA might delay action to observe labour market developments over the coming months.

The cash rate has remained steady since November 2023, maintaining a level of 4.35%. Nevertheless, as economic tides shift, the RBA faces critical decisions that could reshape the financial landscape for Australian consumers and businesses alike.

Published:Monday, 17th Feb 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ASX Adjusts Dividend Policy Following ASIC's $150 Million Capital Charge

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has announced a reduction in its dividend payout ratio to 75-85% of underlying net profit after tax. This decision follows the Australian Securities and Investments Commission's (ASIC) imposition of an additional A$150 million capital charge on the exchange operator. The regulatory action stems from an inquiry into ASX's operational shortcomings, including a failed software upgrade and recurring trade-processing issues. - read more

Hanwha's Investment in Austal Expands Amidst Regulatory Oversight

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian government has approved South Korean conglomerate Hanwha's proposal to increase its shareholding in Australian shipbuilder Austal from 9.9% to 19.9%. This approval comes with stringent conditions concerning security and data access to safeguard Australia's strategic and national security interests. - read more

November Sees Softening in Australian Business Conditions Amidst Capacity Challenges

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In November, Australian business conditions experienced a decline, as reported by the National Australia Bank (NAB) survey. The business conditions index fell by 3 points to +7, indicating a softening in sales and profits after a period of strong performance. The business confidence index also dropped by 5 points to +1, suggesting a potential cooling in consumer demand following October's strength. - read more

RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.60%, Forecasts Extended Stability

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its decision to maintain the official cash rate at 3.60% during its December meeting, signaling a potential extended period of stability through 2026. This move reflects the central bank's response to higher-than-expected inflation and a robust economic environment. - read more

October Sees Significant Rise in Australian Household Spending

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In October 2025, Australian household spending experienced a notable increase of 1.3%, reaching A$78.4 billion. This marks the most substantial monthly rise in nearly two years, driven primarily by year-end sales events and heightened consumer confidence. - read more

Australia's Economy Achieves 2.1% Annual Growth in Q3 2025

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, recording a 2.1% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025. This marks the fastest annual expansion in two years, driven by robust business investments and consumer spending. - read more

APRA's New Cap on High DTI Home Loans: What It Means for Borrowers

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap restricting banks from issuing more than 20% of new home loans to borrowers with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios of six times or higher. This measure applies to both owner-occupier and investor loans, excluding new housing developments. - read more

Click for more Finance News