RBA On The Brink: Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The survey, conducted as part of the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 73% of economists and market specialists foresee a 25-basis point rate cut at next week's meeting. This adjustment could lower the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease in five years, according to findings initially reported by Patrick Buncsi at Financial Services Online.

While most forecast the cut for February, a subset of experts opts for alternative timelines. Five survey participants predict an April reduction, whereas two others anticipate a rate cut happening by May. Divergent opinions highlight the complexity of the economic landscape and the challenges faced by policymakers.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, is among those expecting the RBA to act decisively. "Underlying inflation is falling faster than the RBA expected and has been running around target over the last six months, economic activity is a bit weaker than expected and Trump’s trade war poses more risks to Australian growth than inflation," Oliver remarked, pointing to international tensions adding weight to the decision.

The prospect of a rate cut is driven not only by global factors but also by domestic concerns, including election year dynamics and noteworthy dips in monthly inflation figures. Critics argue that the combination of weak growth and international trade volatility necessitates a proactive approach from the RBA.

Despite the apparent urgency, some economists urge caution. QUT Adjunct Professor Noel Whittaker is sceptical of a prompt cut, citing persistent inflation within the building sector, severe labour shortages, and robust employment figures. "The problem is inflation in the building industry remains massive, labour shortages are severe, and the job market is still strong - keeping inflationary pressure on the economy," Whittaker notes.

Other analysts mirror Whittaker's concerns, pointing towards stubborn core inflation rates and price pressures within specific sectors. Sean Langcake of Oxford Economics Australia warns that the February decision is closely contested. He elaborates, "The February decision will be a very close run. Inflation in Q4 was a little weaker than the RBA expected."

Langcake expressed the ongoing deliberation, cautioning that despite weaker inflation indicators, "Services inflation is still looking very strong - a byproduct of the labour market still operating beyond its capacity." He suggests the RBA might delay action to observe labour market developments over the coming months.

The cash rate has remained steady since November 2023, maintaining a level of 4.35%. Nevertheless, as economic tides shift, the RBA faces critical decisions that could reshape the financial landscape for Australian consumers and businesses alike.

Published:Monday, 17th Feb 2025
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

OnDeck Australia Enhances SME Financing with Increased Loan Limits

09 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to support Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), OnDeck Australia has announced an increase in the maximum limit for its Lightning Loans Plus product, now offering up to $300,000 in unsecured funding. This enhancement aims to provide SMEs with faster and more flexible financing options to meet their growth and operational needs. - read more

Impending Payday Super Reforms Pose Cash Flow Challenges for SMEs

09 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are bracing for significant cash flow challenges as the upcoming Payday Superannuation reforms are set to take effect on 1 July 2026. These changes will require employers to remit superannuation contributions concurrently with employee wages, a shift from the current quarterly payment system. - read more

Australian SMEs Boost Asset Finance to Drive Productivity

09 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In the face of economic uncertainty, Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly investing in long-term productivity through asset finance. Recent data indicates a 41% surge in asset finance volumes during the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a strategic shift towards enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness. - read more

Government Launches Zero-Interest Loans for SMEs in Key Sectors

01 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Government has initiated the $1 billion Economic Resilience Program, offering zero-interest loans of up to $5 million to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in critical supply chain sectors. This initiative aims to bolster businesses affected by escalating fuel costs and supply chain disruptions stemming from global conflicts. - read more

SME Lenders Roll Out Tailored Support Amid Fuel Price Surge

01 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In response to escalating fuel prices impacting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), specialist lenders Prospa and Judo Bank have introduced tailored support measures to assist businesses facing cash flow challenges. - read more

Upcoming Payday Super Reforms Pose Cash Flow Challenges for SMEs

01 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are on the brink of a significant cash flow challenge as the payday superannuation reforms are set to take effect on July 1, 2026. These changes will require employers to remit superannuation contributions concurrently with employee wages, a shift from the current quarterly payment system. - read more

Australian SMEs Ramp Up Borrowing Ahead of Payday Super Changes

23 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are experiencing a significant uptick in borrowing, driven by a shift from survival to expansion. This trend emerges as the impending Payday Super reforms, set to commence on 1 July 2026, pose potential challenges to cash flow and borrowing capacity. - read more

Click for more Finance News