RBA On The Brink: Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The survey, conducted as part of the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 73% of economists and market specialists foresee a 25-basis point rate cut at next week's meeting. This adjustment could lower the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease in five years, according to findings initially reported by Patrick Buncsi at Financial Services Online.

While most forecast the cut for February, a subset of experts opts for alternative timelines. Five survey participants predict an April reduction, whereas two others anticipate a rate cut happening by May. Divergent opinions highlight the complexity of the economic landscape and the challenges faced by policymakers.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, is among those expecting the RBA to act decisively. "Underlying inflation is falling faster than the RBA expected and has been running around target over the last six months, economic activity is a bit weaker than expected and Trump’s trade war poses more risks to Australian growth than inflation," Oliver remarked, pointing to international tensions adding weight to the decision.

The prospect of a rate cut is driven not only by global factors but also by domestic concerns, including election year dynamics and noteworthy dips in monthly inflation figures. Critics argue that the combination of weak growth and international trade volatility necessitates a proactive approach from the RBA.

Despite the apparent urgency, some economists urge caution. QUT Adjunct Professor Noel Whittaker is sceptical of a prompt cut, citing persistent inflation within the building sector, severe labour shortages, and robust employment figures. "The problem is inflation in the building industry remains massive, labour shortages are severe, and the job market is still strong – keeping inflationary pressure on the economy," Whittaker notes.

Other analysts mirror Whittaker's concerns, pointing towards stubborn core inflation rates and price pressures within specific sectors. Sean Langcake of Oxford Economics Australia warns that the February decision is closely contested. He elaborates, "The February decision will be a very close run. Inflation in Q4 was a little weaker than the RBA expected."

Langcake expressed the ongoing deliberation, cautioning that despite weaker inflation indicators, "Services inflation is still looking very strong – a byproduct of the labour market still operating beyond its capacity." He suggests the RBA might delay action to observe labour market developments over the coming months.

The cash rate has remained steady since November 2023, maintaining a level of 4.35%. Nevertheless, as economic tides shift, the RBA faces critical decisions that could reshape the financial landscape for Australian consumers and businesses alike.

Published:Monday, 17th Feb 2025
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

SME Borrowing Rebound Puts Planning Ahead of Panic

04 Nov 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian SME borrowing activity appears to have regained momentum, with newly reported Banjo Loans Barometer data for the quarter to 30 September 2026 pointing to stronger loan applications, more loans drawn and a continued focus on cash buffers. The result is notable because it follows months of more cautious borrowing signals from parts of the small business market, and suggests many firms are not simply waiting for conditions to improve before reviewing their funding position. - read more

SMEs Turn to Non-Bank Funding as Investment Plans Hold Up

28 Oct 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian SMEs planning their next round of investment are increasingly looking beyond traditional bank funding, with new ScotPac SME Growth Index findings reported by Inside Small Business on 22 October 2026 showing non-bank finance has reached a record share of intended funding use. The result is a notable signal for business owners and finance managers: the question is no longer simply whether credit is available, but which structure best matches the timing, risk and cash flow profile of the business. - read more

Business Confidence Signals Put Loan Readiness Back in Focus

16 Sep 2026: Paige Estritori

Latest Australian business survey reporting is sending a practical message to owners and finance managers: trading conditions may be holding up in parts of the economy, but confidence remains fragile. For SMEs, that mix matters. When revenue is uneven, input costs are sticky and customers are cautious, the timing and structure of new borrowing can become just as important as the headline interest rate. - read more

Why ATO Interest Changes Matter for Business Borrowers

09 Sep 2026: Paige Estritori

A tax change now working through Australian business finances deserves close attention from owners, directors and finance managers. Since 1 July 2025, the ATO’s general interest charge and shortfall interest charge have no longer been tax-deductible. For businesses carrying overdue tax or correcting underpaid obligations, that can lift the effective after-tax cost of falling behind. - read more

Payday Super Puts Payroll Timing Under the Finance Microscope

02 Sep 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s move towards Payday Super is more than a compliance update for employers. For many small and medium-sized businesses, it changes the rhythm of payroll-related cash outflows and places a sharper focus on whether day-to-day liquidity is strong enough to meet obligations as they fall due. - read more

Specialist SME Lending Remains Open, But Discipline Matters

26 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Latest market reporting around specialist SME lender Judo Bank points to a business credit market that is not shutting down, but is becoming more deliberate. The lender’s continued focus on relationship-led lending, deposits and small to medium-sized business borrowers suggests demand for finance remains present among firms with clear plans and serviceable cash flow. - read more

Payment Timing Keeps Pressure on SME Working Capital

19 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Fresh small business indicators are again pointing to a familiar challenge for Australian SMEs: trading activity may continue, but the timing of cash receipts is still creating pressure. Recent industry commentary has highlighted uneven payment behaviour, cautious customer spending and a more deliberate approach to investment among smaller firms. For owners and finance managers, that combination can make working capital planning just as important as sales growth. - read more

Click for more Finance News