RBA On The Brink: Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up

2

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The survey, conducted as part of the Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 73% of economists and market specialists foresee a 25-basis point rate cut at next week's meeting. This adjustment could lower the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease in five years, according to findings initially reported by Patrick Buncsi at Financial Services Online.

While most forecast the cut for February, a subset of experts opts for alternative timelines. Five survey participants predict an April reduction, whereas two others anticipate a rate cut happening by May. Divergent opinions highlight the complexity of the economic landscape and the challenges faced by policymakers.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, is among those expecting the RBA to act decisively. "Underlying inflation is falling faster than the RBA expected and has been running around target over the last six months, economic activity is a bit weaker than expected and Trump’s trade war poses more risks to Australian growth than inflation," Oliver remarked, pointing to international tensions adding weight to the decision.

The prospect of a rate cut is driven not only by global factors but also by domestic concerns, including election year dynamics and noteworthy dips in monthly inflation figures. Critics argue that the combination of weak growth and international trade volatility necessitates a proactive approach from the RBA.

Despite the apparent urgency, some economists urge caution. QUT Adjunct Professor Noel Whittaker is sceptical of a prompt cut, citing persistent inflation within the building sector, severe labour shortages, and robust employment figures. "The problem is inflation in the building industry remains massive, labour shortages are severe, and the job market is still strong - keeping inflationary pressure on the economy," Whittaker notes.

Other analysts mirror Whittaker's concerns, pointing towards stubborn core inflation rates and price pressures within specific sectors. Sean Langcake of Oxford Economics Australia warns that the February decision is closely contested. He elaborates, "The February decision will be a very close run. Inflation in Q4 was a little weaker than the RBA expected."

Langcake expressed the ongoing deliberation, cautioning that despite weaker inflation indicators, "Services inflation is still looking very strong - a byproduct of the labour market still operating beyond its capacity." He suggests the RBA might delay action to observe labour market developments over the coming months.

The cash rate has remained steady since November 2023, maintaining a level of 4.35%. Nevertheless, as economic tides shift, the RBA faces critical decisions that could reshape the financial landscape for Australian consumers and businesses alike.

Published:Monday, 17th Feb 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Renown Lending Boosts SME Funding Pool to $400 Million

10 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to bolster support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Australia, Renown Lending has announced an expansion of its funding pool from $250 million to $400 million. This substantial increase aims to provide fast and flexible financing solutions to businesses nationwide, addressing the growing demand for accessible funding options. - read more

Westpac's Bold Move to Strengthen Business Lending

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant strategic shift, Westpac Banking Corporation is intensifying its focus on business lending by restructuring its branch operations and investing heavily in digital platforms. This move aims to enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Australia. - read more

AFCA Cautions SMEs on Unregulated Lending Practices

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) has issued a cautionary advisory to small businesses regarding the potential risks associated with engaging lenders who are not members of AFCA. This warning comes in response to a noticeable increase in complaints from SMEs about lenders operating outside the regulatory framework. - read more

SMEs Seek Financing Solutions Ahead of ATO Debt Rule Changes

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are proactively seeking financing solutions in response to impending changes in Australian Taxation Office (ATO) debt regulations. Effective July 1, general interest charges (GIC) and shortfall interest charges (SIC) on tax debts will no longer be tax-deductible, prompting a significant uptick in loan inquiries from businesses aiming to manage their tax obligations efficiently. - read more

Rise of Unsecured Business Loans Among Australian SMEs

25 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly turning to unsecured business loans as a means of financing growth and operations. This trend reflects a shift away from traditional lending models that require physical assets as collateral, offering businesses greater flexibility and accessibility to funds. - read more

Non-Bank Lenders Escalate Court Actions as Major Banks Withdraw

17 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In recent years, Australia's financial sector has witnessed a notable shift in lending and enforcement practices. Non-bank lenders have significantly increased their court enforcement actions, while major banks have concurrently reduced their involvement in such proceedings. This trend underscores a changing dynamic in creditor behaviour and raises important considerations for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) seeking financing. - read more

Australian SMEs Curtail Borrowing Amid Economic Uncertainty

17 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In the final quarter of 2025, Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exhibited a cautious approach to borrowing, influenced by ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflation and interest rates. This trend has led to a noticeable decline in lending volumes, reflecting the broader economic apprehensions within the SME sector. - read more

Click for more Finance News