Australia Grapples with Prolonged Economic Slowdown

4

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in its recent economic outlook, revised Australia's GDP growth projection for 2024 downwards—from an anticipated 1.5% growth to a more conservative 1.1%. Looking further ahead, it forecasts a gradual recovery with an expected GDP increase of 1.8% by 2025.

Despite these projections, Australia's population growth of 2.4% for the year ending June 2024 tends to exacerbate the per capita recession, hinting that this economic hardship might persist beyond previous expectations. The ramifications of these economic conditions are predominately felt by average households.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's steadfast approach in raising interest rates has placed a substantial burden on household budgets. This has led to a 2.4% reduction in household consumption from its apex in real per capita terms.

More noticeably, real per capita household disposable income plunged by an unprecedented 8% from its earlier highs. This constitutes the steepest decline observed in contemporary economic analysis according to recent statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

August figures from the ABS Household Spending Indicator reported stagnant spending in nominal terms, succeeding prior decreases of 0.5% in July and 0.1% in June. Robert Ewing, head of business statistics at ABS, observed, "Growth in household spending has stalled at the start of the financial year, even as the Federal government's Stage 3 tax cuts came into effect on 1 July".

An analytical depiction by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, matched ABS Household Spending Indicator data with household consumption figures from quarterly national accounts. The analysis suggests a persisting frailty in these accounts throughout Q3, indicating that the current recession per capita is far from over.

The new policies, including the Stage 3 tax cuts designed to boost economic engagement and consumer spending, appear to have offered limited relief as the economy remains dormant. Acknowledging information from the original source, The OECD Digest, it's evident that while several measures are in play, the anticipated economic rejuvenation remains elusive.

Published:Tuesday, 8th Oct 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

RBA to Continue Interest Rate Cuts Amid High Unemployment 08 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its trajectory of incremental interest rate reductions, according to insights from leading financial analysts at ANZ. Recent data from the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series revealed a rise from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June, suggesting a potential rebound in job advertisements after previous declines. Despite a stable unemployment rate and hours-based underutilisation rate since mid-2024, the Australian labour market remains strained. - read more

RBA Poised for Cash Rate Cut Amid Inflationary Trends 07 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its forthcoming monetary policy announcement, economic analysts anticipate a further reduction in the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This prediction, supported by Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 88% of participating experts foresee a cut that would lower the interest rate to 3.6%, aligning the decision with the recent decline in both headline and core inflation to the central bank's target range of two to three percent. - read more

Uncovering the Impact of Unsolicited Solar Sales on Consumers 04 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori In a concerning revelation, Australian retiree Christine Hirchfield shares her ordeal with an unsolicited solar installation that turned into a financial nightmare. Despite her initial enthusiasm for cheaper energy bills and a greener home, the project remains incomplete more than a year later. Consumer groups are now advocating for a nationwide prohibition on deceptive sales practices that target vulnerable consumers like Ms Hirchfield. - read more

Australian Online Retail Sees Continued Growth in May Amidst Nationwide Spending Surge 03 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori Australian online retail sales experienced a modest rise in May, as consumers continued to invest in fashion, games, and toys. According to the latest figures from the National Australia Bank, there was a 0.7% increase in online sales for the month, compared to a 1.1% growth in April. Over the past year, Australians have spent approximately $63 billion on online retail purchases. - read more

Pay Boosts and Policy Changes: A Closer Look at Financial Updates for Australian Workers 03 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The starting days of the new financial year bring significant changes for Australian workers, particularly those on minimum wage. As of Tuesday, the minimum wage will rise by 3.5 per cent, increasing hourly earnings to $24.95, or $948 weekly. This adjustment also affects award wages and comes as a response to rising living costs, outpacing current inflation rates. - read more

US Dollar Faces Historic Decline Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies 03 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The US dollar has experienced an unprecedented decline, marking its worst first-half performance since 1973. Concerns surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies have intensified, leading to a substantial drop in the value of the world's primary reserve currency. Specifically, the dollar weakened by 10.7% against a basket of major trading partners' currencies in the first six months of the year, reminiscent of Nixon's era when the dollar was untethered from gold. - read more

Auditor Deregistered After Brite Advisers Collapse 30 Jun 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has deregistered auditor David Makowa, previously of DM Advisory Services, due to his role in the downfall of financial advice firm Brite Advisers. This decision follows Makowa's acceptance of a court-enforceable undertaking in which he agreed to surrender his auditor registration permanently, pledging never to re-apply. - read more